TENNISGOAT

Upsets & giant-killers

Measured by pre-match Elo gap, so "upset" means the ratings truly disagreed — not just seedings. Players with fewer than 20 career matches at the time are excluded (their ratings are still provisional).

Biggest upsets

#WinnerElo BeatGapMatchScore
1 🇦🇺 Charlie Fancutt 1487 🇺🇸 Ivan Lendl (2336) 849 Wimbledon 1981 R128 Grass 4-6 6-3 6-4 1-6 6-3
2 🇦🇷 Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1763 🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (2487) 724 Roland Garros 2026 R64 Clay 3-6 2-6 7-5 6-1 6-1
3 🇺🇸 Doug Flach 1590 🇺🇸 Andre Agassi (2308) 718 Wimbledon 1996 R128 Grass 2-6 7-6(1) 6-4 7-6(6)
4 🇺🇿 Denis Istomin 1794 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2512) 718 Australian Open 2017 R64 Hard 7-6(8) 5-7 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4
5 🇺🇸 Sam Querrey 1920 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2567) 647 Wimbledon 2016 R32 Grass 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 7-6(5)
6 🇧🇷 Thiago Seyboth Wild 1649 🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev (2296) 647 Roland Garros 2023 R128 Clay 7-6(5) 6-7(6) 2-6 6-3 6-4
7 🇷🇺 Andrei Olhovskiy 1711 🇺🇸 Jim Courier (2355) 644 Wimbledon 1992 R32 Grass 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-4
8 🇨🇦 Rejean Genois 1501 🇺🇸 Sandy Mayer (2138) 637 US Open 1978 R128 Hard 7-6 6-2
9 🇧🇪 Steve Darcis 1847 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal (2483) 636 Wimbledon 2013 R128 Grass 7-6(4) 7-6(8) 6-4
10 🇺🇸 Eric Fromm 1567 🇫🇷 Yannick Noah (2181) 614 Wimbledon 1981 R128 Grass 6-4 6-4 6-3
11 🇺🇦 Sergiy Stakhovsky 1761 🇨🇭 Roger Federer (2375) 614 Wimbledon 2013 R64 Grass 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5 7-6(5)
12 🇯🇵 Jun Kamiwazumi 1580 🇺🇸 Stan Smith (2175) 595 Roland Garros 1974 R128 Clay 3-6 6-4 8-6
13 🇦🇷 Renzo Olivo 1599 🇫🇷 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (2184) 585 Roland Garros 2017 R128 Clay 7-5 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4
14 🇺🇸 Michael Mmoh 1643 🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev (2221) 578 Australian Open 2023 R64 Hard 6-7(1) 6-4 6-3 6-2
15 🇫🇷 Christophe Roger-Vasselin 1800 🇺🇸 Jimmy Connors (2375) 575 Roland Garros 1983 QF Clay 6-4 6-4 7-6
16 🇮🇹 Antonio Zugarelli 1625 🇪🇸 Manuel Orantes (2177) 552 Roland Garros 1975 R128 Clay 6-3 6-0
17 🇳🇱 Michiel Schapers 1746 🇩🇪 Boris Becker (2295) 549 Australian Open 1985 R64 Grass 3-6 6-4 7-6 4-6 6-3
18 🇦🇺 Peter Doohan 1825 🇩🇪 Boris Becker (2373) 548 Wimbledon 1987 R64 Grass 7-6 4-6 6-2 6-4
19 🇬🇪 Teymuraz Gabashvili 1705 🇺🇸 Andy Roddick (2252) 547 Roland Garros 2010 R32 Clay 6-4 6-4 6-2
20 🇩🇪 Mischa Zverev 1902 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2446) 544 Australian Open 2017 R16 Hard 7-5 5-7 6-2 6-4
21 🇫🇷 Jean-Baptiste Chanfreau 1461 🇺🇸 Marty Riessen (2003) 542 US Open 1970 R128 Grass 2-6 7-5 1-6 6-4 6-0
22 Dustin Brown 1775 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal (2316) 541 Wimbledon 2015 R64 Grass 7-5 3-6 6-4 6-4
23 🇨🇿 Lukas Rosol 1883 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal (2423) 540 Wimbledon 2012 R64 Grass 6-7(9) 6-4 6-4 2-6 6-4
24 🇦🇺 Chris Kachel 1600 🇺🇸 Arthur Ashe (2136) 536 Wimbledon 1979 R128 Grass 6-4 7-6 6-3
25 🇿🇦 Willem Prinsloo 1517 🇺🇸 Jeff Borowiak (2052) 535 US Open 1977 R128 Clay 3-6 7-6 6-1
26 🇺🇸 Todd Witsken 1765 🇺🇸 Jimmy Connors (2296) 531 US Open 1986 R32 Hard 6-2 6-4 7-5
27 🇦🇺 John Marks 1535 🇦🇷 Jose-Luis Clerc (2060) 525 Australian Open 1978 R64 Grass 6-7 RET
28 🇷🇴 Dinu Pescariu 1586 🇭🇷 Goran Ivanisevic (2109) 523 US Open 1997 R128 Hard 4-6 7-5 6-1 7-6(3)
29 🇨🇿 Lukas Dlouhy 1479 🇧🇪 Kristof Vliegen (1999) 520 Roland Garros 2006 R128 Clay 4-6 6-4 3-6 7-6(5) 6-2
30 🇬🇧 Colin Dowdeswell 1671 🇲🇽 Raul Ramirez (2190) 519 US Open 1976 R64 Clay 6-4 6-4
31 🇦🇺 Brad Drewett 1694 🇺🇸 Vitas Gerulaitis (2213) 519 Australian Open 1980 R64 Grass 2-6 6-4 1-6 6-4 6-4
32 🇷🇸 Slobodan Zivojinovic 1996 🇺🇸 John McEnroe (2515) 519 Australian Open 1985 QF Grass 2-6 6-3 1-6 6-4 6-0
33 🇨🇿 Milan Holecek 1632 🇦🇺 John Newcombe (2146) 514 Roland Garros 1973 R128 Clay 7-5 6-1
34 🇦🇺 Wally Masur 1837 🇺🇸 John McEnroe (2350) 513 Wimbledon 1988 R64 Grass 7-5 7-6 6-3
35 🇯🇵 Shintaro Mochizuki 1605 🇪🇸 Rafael Jodar (2115) 510 Wimbledon 2026 R32 Grass 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4
36 Nduka Odizor 1731 🇦🇷 Guillermo Vilas (2240) 509 Wimbledon 1983 R128 Grass 3-6 5-7 7-6 7-5 6-2
37 🇦🇺 Warren Maher 1498 🇦🇺 Peter McNamara (2005) 507 Wimbledon 1980 R128 Grass 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-2
38 🇳🇱 Botic van de Zandschulp 1800 🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz (2307) 507 US Open 2024 R64 Hard 6-1 7-5 6-4
39 🇦🇺 John Marks 1591 🇺🇸 Dick Stockton (2097) 506 Wimbledon 1978 R128 Grass 6-2 9-8 7-5
40 🇺🇸 Tom Leonard 1532 🇭🇷 Zeljko Franulovic (2033) 501 US Open 1971 R64 Grass 4-6 6-7 6-3 7-5 7-6

Best underdog record

Win rate when the lower-rated player (min. 80 such matches).

  1. 🇩🇪 Boris Becker 54.7% (47–39)
  2. 🇳🇱 Richard Krajicek 49.6% (65–66)
  3. 🇩🇪 Michael Stich 49.5% (47–48)
  4. 🇷🇺 Yevgeny Kafelnikov 49.4% (79–81)
  5. 🇪🇸 Albert Costa 49.0% (98–102)
  6. 🇨🇦 Felix Auger-Aliassime 48.9% (65–68)
  7. 🇧🇷 Gustavo Kuerten 48.6% (52–55)
  8. 🇸🇰 Miloslav Mecir Sr. 47.6% (40–44)
  9. 🇫🇷 Ugo Humbert 46.2% (67–78)
  10. 🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz 46.1% (82–96)
  11. 🇨🇭 Roger Federer 46.1% (47–55)
  12. 🇫🇷 Arnaud Boetsch 45.6% (72–86)
  13. 🇺🇸 Arthur Ashe 45.6% (57–68)
  14. 🇦🇷 Alberto Mancini 45.6% (41–49)
  15. 🇺🇸 Andre Agassi 45.4% (44–53)
Methodology

An upset is a win by the player with the lower pre-match Elo; the gap is the rating difference at that moment. Matches where either player had fewer than 20 prior career matches are excluded, since early ratings are provisional. Giant-kills count career wins over opponents rated 100+ Elo higher; underdog records count all matches entered as the lower-rated player (minimum 80).