TENNISGOAT

Upsets & giant-killers

Measured by pre-match Elo gap, so "upset" means the ratings truly disagreed — not just seedings. Players with fewer than 20 career matches at the time are excluded (their ratings are still provisional).

Biggest upsets

#WinnerElo BeatGapMatchScore
1 🇨🇿 Jiri Vesely 1779 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2570) 791 Monte Carlo Masters 2016 R32 Clay 6-4 2-6 6-4
2 🇯🇵 Taro Daniel 1675 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2416) 741 Indian Wells Masters 2018 R64 Hard 7-6(3) 4-6 6-1
3 🇺🇸 Frances Tiafoe 1564 🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev (2270) 706 Cincinnati Masters 2017 R32 Hard 4-6 6-3 6-4
4 🇫🇷 Thierry Guardiola 1558 🇺🇸 Jim Courier (2208) 650 Rome Masters 1995 R64 Clay 3-6 6-3 7-6(3)
5 🇺🇸 Donald Young 1633 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2262) 629 Indian Wells Masters 2011 R64 Hard 7-6(4) 6-3
6 🇦🇺 Thanasi Kokkinakis 1799 🇨🇭 Roger Federer (2416) 617 Miami Masters 2018 R64 Hard 3-6 6-3 7-6(4)
7 🇪🇸 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 1795 🇨🇭 Roger Federer (2404) 609 Shanghai Masters 2015 R32 Hard 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3
8 🇮🇹 Filippo Volandri 1916 🇨🇭 Roger Federer (2502) 586 Rome Masters 2007 R16 Clay 6-2 6-4
9 🇨🇦 Vasek Pospisil 1856 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2434) 578 Indian Wells Masters 2017 R64 Hard 6-4 7-6(5)
10 🇩🇪 Tobias Kamke 1738 🇦🇷 Juan Martin del Potro (2312) 574 Miami Masters 2013 R64 Hard 7-6(5) 6-1
11 🇫🇷 Richard Gasquet 1896 🇨🇭 Roger Federer (2462) 566 Monte Carlo Masters 2005 QF Clay 6-7(1) 6-2 7-6(8)
12 🇮🇹 Flavio Cipolla 1605 🇺🇸 Andy Roddick (2170) 565 Madrid Masters 2011 R64 Clay 6-4 6-7(7) 6-3
13 🇫🇷 Guillaume Raoux 1659 🇺🇸 Pete Sampras (2221) 562 Paris Masters 1990 R16 Carpet 6-3 3-6 6-3
14 🇪🇸 David Ferrer 1706 🇺🇸 Andre Agassi (2265) 559 Rome Masters 2003 R64 Clay 0-6 7-6(3) 6-4
15 🇷🇺 Alex Bogomolov Jr. 1711 🇪🇸 David Ferrer (2269) 558 Canada Masters 2013 R32 Hard 6-2 6-4
16 🇮🇹 Lorenzo Musetti 1853 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2404) 551 Monte Carlo Masters 2023 R16 Clay 4-6 7-5 6-4
17 🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo 1770 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2320) 550 Monte Carlo Masters 2025 R32 Clay 6-3 6-4
18 🇪🇸 Jordi Arrese 1919 🇸🇪 Bjorn Borg (2456) 537 Monte Carlo Masters 1991 R64 Clay 6-2 6-3
19 🇪🇸 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1813 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2347) 534 Indian Wells Masters 2012 R64 Hard 6-4 6-2
20 🇭🇷 Ivan Dodig 1892 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal (2418) 526 Canada Masters 2011 R32 Hard 1-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)
21 🇬🇪 Irakli Labadze 1633 🇪🇸 Carlos Moya (2156) 523 Indian Wells Masters 2004 R64 Hard 2-6 6-1 6-3
22 🇫🇷 Julien Benneteau 1896 🇨🇭 Roger Federer (2419) 523 Paris Masters 2009 R32 Hard 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4
23 🇫🇷 Benoit Paire 1879 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2400) 521 Miami Masters 2018 R64 Hard 6-3 6-4
24 🇦🇷 Horacio Zeballos 1673 🇦🇷 Juan Martin del Potro (2191) 518 Miami Masters 2016 R64 Hard 6-4 6-4
25 🇪🇸 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1859 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2377) 518 Monte Carlo Masters 2022 R32 Clay 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1
26 🇺🇦 Alexandr Dolgopolov 1965 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal (2481) 516 Indian Wells Masters 2014 R32 Hard 6-3 3-6 7-6(5)
27 🇧🇪 Olivier Rochus 1834 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2347) 513 Miami Masters 2010 R64 Hard 6-2 6-7(7) 6-4
28 🇪🇸 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 1912 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2420) 508 Monte Carlo Masters 2017 R16 Clay 2-6 6-2 7-5
29 🇳🇱 Botic van de Zandschulp 1829 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2336) 507 Indian Wells Masters 2025 R64 Hard 6-2 3-6 6-1
30 🇮🇹 Renzo Furlan 1862 🇺🇸 Ivan Lendl (2366) 504 Hamburg Masters 1991 R32 Clay 7-5 6-4
31 🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo 1873 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2376) 503 Rome Masters 2024 R32 Clay 6-2 6-3
32 🇨🇱 Tomas Barrios Vera 1475 🇫🇷 Gael Monfils (1978) 503 Canada Masters 2025 R128 Hard 6-4 4-6 7-6(3)
33 🇷🇺 Aslan Karatsev 1789 🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev (2285) 496 Madrid Masters 2023 R16 Clay 7-6(1) 6-4
34 🇭🇷 Dino Prizmic 1815 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2309) 494 Rome Masters 2026 R64 Clay 2-6 6-2 6-4
35 🇳🇱 Tallon Griekspoor 1937 🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (2428) 491 Shanghai 2025 R32 Hard 6-7(3) 7-5 3-2 RET
36 🇦🇷 Federico Delbonis 1876 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2365) 489 Indian Wells Masters 2016 R32 Hard 6-4 4-6 7-6(3)
37 🇧🇦 Damir Dzumhur 1789 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal (2278) 489 Miami Masters 2016 R64 Hard 2-6 6-4 3-0 RET
38 🇪🇸 Francisco Clavet 1804 🇦🇺 Lleyton Hewitt (2291) 487 Miami Masters 2003 R64 Hard 6-4 6-4
39 🇵🇱 Jerzy Janowicz 1869 🇬🇧 Andy Murray (2356) 487 Paris Masters 2012 R16 Hard 5-7 7-6(4) 6-2
40 🇪🇸 Tommy Robredo 2014 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (2501) 487 Cincinnati Masters 2014 R16 Hard 7-6(6) 7-5

Best underdog record

Win rate when the lower-rated player (min. 80 such matches).

  1. 🇩🇪 Boris Becker 54.7% (47–39)
  2. 🇳🇱 Richard Krajicek 49.6% (65–66)
  3. 🇩🇪 Michael Stich 49.5% (47–48)
  4. 🇷🇺 Yevgeny Kafelnikov 49.4% (79–81)
  5. 🇪🇸 Albert Costa 49.0% (98–102)
  6. 🇨🇦 Felix Auger-Aliassime 48.9% (65–68)
  7. 🇧🇷 Gustavo Kuerten 48.6% (52–55)
  8. 🇸🇰 Miloslav Mecir Sr. 47.6% (40–44)
  9. 🇫🇷 Ugo Humbert 46.2% (67–78)
  10. 🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz 46.1% (82–96)
  11. 🇨🇭 Roger Federer 46.1% (47–55)
  12. 🇫🇷 Arnaud Boetsch 45.6% (72–86)
  13. 🇺🇸 Arthur Ashe 45.6% (57–68)
  14. 🇦🇷 Alberto Mancini 45.6% (41–49)
  15. 🇺🇸 Andre Agassi 45.4% (44–53)
Methodology

An upset is a win by the player with the lower pre-match Elo; the gap is the rating difference at that moment. Matches where either player had fewer than 20 prior career matches are excluded, since early ratings are provisional. Giant-kills count career wins over opponents rated 100+ Elo higher; underdog records count all matches entered as the lower-rated player (minimum 80).